Put a number on emerging risk

Q is Quotient’s AI forecaster. It estimates how likely events are to happen, explains the evidence, and is compared with prediction markets once outcomes are known.

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Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?

71%

33%

Polymarket

Q considered the meeting likely. The market considered it unlikely. It happened.

Forecast September 2, 2026. Resolved September 15, 2026.

See the forecast

Q’s track record

Outside sports, Q was closer to the outcome than Polymarket on — of events in the last 30 days.

Q was closer, —

The market was closer, —

Hover a dot for the event.

By topic, last 30 days

Share of events where Q was closer.

—

Selected forecasts

Each row shows Q’s earliest forecast in the public record and the market price at that moment.

Question	Topic	Forecast date	Q	Market	Outcome	Closer
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Geopolitics	April 2, 2026	12%	49%	No	QQ was closer
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat?	Elections	September 29, 2026	63%	38%	Yes	QQ was closer
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting?	Economy	August 29, 2026	83%	56%	Yes	QQ was closer
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	August 5, 2026	24%	43%	No	QQ was closer
Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Culture	September 21, 2026	20%	36%	No	QQ was closer
Will Wells Fargo (WFC) beat quarterly earnings?	Equities	September 30, 2026	76%	53%	No	MarketThe market was closer

Full track record

Risk indices

Daily readings of risk, with the forecasts behind every change.

Quotient Geopolitical Stability Index

Where conflict, diplomacy and policy markets are heading, from Q’s forecasts and market prices.

—/100

Open the index

Q and the market on a scale of 0 to 100, where higher is calmer. The numbered points are forecasts where Q disagreed with the market before the index turned, and the market has since moved toward Q.

How Q works

Questions and evidence go in; probabilities, indices and updates come out, scored once events resolve.

What goes in

A question

A prediction-market question, or one you set.

Evidence

Sources, actors, assets and related markets.

Market prices

What Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing now.

What Q does

1Classify the question
2Map the landscape
3Research the evidence
4Build scenarios
5Produce the forecast

What comes out

Event probabilities

Scenario-driven, calibrated forecasts on discrete events.

Risk indices

Daily readings that track a risk over time, built from Q’s forecasts and market prices.

Dynamic updates

Forecasts are re-run daily and on request, and every change is dated.

Custom forecasts

Ask Q your own questions, with resolution rules you define.

How Q works, in depth

Who Q is for

Traders

Discover and diligence trading opportunities on Polymarket and Kalshi.

Open Signals

Risk teams

Get ahead of emerging risks to cyber, bio, and global stability with calibrated forecasts.

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AI labs

Datasets of historical forecasts with timestamped, contamination-free evidence and reasoning.

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Media

Keep your audience engaged with dynamic forecasts about headline risks.

Request forecasts for your coverage

Bring Q into your business

Tell us the risk you need to understand and the decision it would support, and the team will respond.