Q is a forecasting agent. It turns a question into a calibrated probability through a repeatable research and scenario process.
Compare Q and the forecast-time market price with the resolved result.
Trace the evidence, expert weights, and missing inputs behind the miss.
Turn repeatable findings into fine-tuning and data changes.
Q curates markets where it sees a large spread and short-term catalysts that it believes will move the market in its direction.
One published call, its thesis, and what happened next.
US
xyzPerps
AAPL
GOLD
WTI
BTC
ETHAssets covered with linked market intelligence
CENTCOM
Each probability stays attached to its exact question, threshold, and resolution date. When Q prices that question away from the venue, the gap points at the asset behind it.
Q read the same question eight points above the venue, and that gap is a view on gold itself.
LONG GOLD · Hyperliquidxyz
Entry 4,347.1 · Take profit 4,390.5 · 10x
Kalshi, Polymarket, Polymarket US, and Limitless — calibrated forecasts, with the rare edge-and-catalyst calls published as signals.
A daily WTI oil signal that opens Long or Short only when the macro index leaves its usual range.
The Hawk & Dove index scores conflict and diplomacy markets 0–100, from Q’s forecasts and from the market’s odds.
Gold, silver, and platinum Assets linked to their active prediction-market thresholds and prices.
Company Assets such as AAPL, joined to market-cap, earnings, and price questions across venues.
Q has already researched and organized the sources behind the market.
Use Q’s fair price instead of repeating the crawl and inference.
Use Q as a low-cost second opinion before you size up.
Route selected trades through Bankr while custody and final approval stay with the user.
Route model calls through Surplus Intelligence to lower the cost of research, monitoring, and execution workflows that run again and again.
discover and diligence trades
develop strategies
serve trusted analysis to your users
build engaging experiences without having to spend on inference or data pipelines
Query Q forecasts, published Signals, market prices, and cited research. MCP is included and optional.
What does Q think about “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?”
Q thinks it is highly unlikely that the seven-day moving average required by the market rules will reach 60 vessel arrivals by May 31. Traffic was around 11 arrivals a day when Q published the forecast, and uncleared mines, an unsigned agreement, and insurance delays made the sustained increase implausible.
Lower Brier scores mean better forecasts. Q and Polymarket are scored on the same outcomes, using the market price recorded when each Q forecast was made.
A forecast is eligible only when its market is explicitly marked closed or resolved. It is scored as NO only when terminal YES odds are strictly below 1%, and YES only when strictly above 99%; open markets and values exactly at 1% or 99% are excluded.
Brier score is mean squared error between the probability stated at forecast time and the resolved outcome. Lower is better; always forecasting 50% scores 0.25.
The Polymarket benchmark is the YES probability stored with each forecast at creation time, not the market's current price.
Read with care. Recent cohorts are incomplete because the 60-day view includes only forecasts whose markets have resolved. Forecasts on the same market are correlated, so the market count is shown with the forecast count.
Geopolitics + global elections · all forecast observations · updated Aug 11, 2026Q curates markets where it sees a large spread and short-term catalysts that it believes will move the market in its direction.
One published call, its thesis, and what happened next.
OpenAI is unlikely to release GPT-5.6 by July 8 because the Trump administration's ongoing cybersecurity review pushes any public launch into mid-July.
| Published | Q’s call | Market question | Entry → Exit | Return | Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1 | Q → YES | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | 74¢ → 100¢ | +35.1% | Review ↗ |
| Aug 1 | Q → NO | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | 32¢ → 1¢ | −97.3% | Review ↗ |
| Aug 1 | Q → YES | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | 66¢ → 100¢ | +51.4% | Review ↗ |
| Average paper return · Hold 7 days strategyAcross 85 measurable resolved positions | +34.5% | See the full track record | |||
