Live signals
A select number of live markets, published as Signals when the market appears mispriced and the evidence points to a near-term catalyst.
See live signalsAgentic market intelligence
The forecasting systemfor what comes next
Q, Quotient's AI forecaster, calls real-world outcomes and market movement independently of market prices.
See live signalsLivePrediction markets
LiveCrude-oil perpetual futures
ExpandingMore markets
FutureEvery market
Forecast everything
Quotient is building toward a system that can forecast across markets by developing an ensemble around Q.
Forecasting agents and specialists could contribute independent forecasts, which the ensemble would combine into a single forecast. The ensemble gains value when contributors reach their judgments independently and bring different information.
Each contribution would be scored against outcomes. Contributors who improve the combined forecast would earn more weight and build reputation over time. Contribution and incentive mechanics are still being designed.
Quotient in practice
Q produces forecasts and forms its fair price. Today, Q forecasts prediction markets and crude-oil perpetual futures. That work is the foundation of Quotient Signals and Proof of Edge.
Resolved case studies
Patterns across resolved Signals, documenting how Q's forecasts performed in the public record.
See Proof of EdgeReports
Research Lab tests ideas that could improve the system and applies Quotient's data to broader questions about the markets around it.
Read the latest researchHow coverage expands
From prediction marketsto broader markets
Prediction markets give Q a live market price, a deadline, and a defined YES or NO outcome. When a market resolves, Quotient scores Q's forecast against the outcome.
Crude-oil perpetual futures extend the same forecasting process to a continuously traded market. Quotient evaluates Q's forecast against price movement over a defined horizon.
LivePrediction markets
Every market resolves, so every forecast is scored.
Every market resolves, so every forecast is scored.LiveCrude-oil perpetual futures
The same questions, in markets that never close.
The same questions, in markets that never close.ExpandingMore marketsOne process, extended to new asset classes.
FutureEvery marketA forecast for every market with a live price.
Explaining markets and methods
Quotient publishes analysis of the markets it studies through writing, long-form video, and Shorts. This work gives people a closer look at the evidence, methods, and questions shaping Quotient's forecasts and research.
Builders and operators
Quotient is led by founders who have built intelligence products, crypto primitives, and digital communities. Each leads a different part of Quotient, working together to shape the system.
@amphib0lyCo-founder, CEOAt QuotientForecasting system, product, and research direction.ExperienceStarted as an intelligence analyst at Kharon and rose to Director of Product, building and scaling its risk-intelligence data products.
@Shira_LESCo-founder, CMOAt QuotientBrand, product, go-to-market, and editorial direction.ExperienceFounded Byron+Five and co-founded Snickerdoodle Labs, with earlier senior roles in marketing at American Express and brand innovation at Citi.
@niftytimeCo-founder, COOAt QuotientOperations, partnerships, sales, and content production.ExperienceWorked in strategy at Samsung, led growth and community at Cent, and ran partnerships at Gemini.