Proof of method
Whose Iran CallsHeld Up?
Quotient evaluated 557 predictions from 130 public experts to see who added real signal before the outcome was known.
Finding
Credentials did not predict signal
Put Q to work
Q reads the public record and the market price. It finds where the risk is wrong, before the outcome is known.
Latest reportJune 15, 2026Expert Index · Iran
Method
We publish the whole record
A forecast is only useful when you can see how it was made. Every forecast keeps the question, the evidence, the probability, and the outcome together.
01
Question
What would resolve it
02
Evidence
Primary sources, testimony, reporting
03
Probability
Q's call and its reasoning
04
Outcome
How it updates as the call resolves
Work with Quotient
01
Market signals
Q flags where the market price misreads the risk, the timing, or the resolution criteria.
Request signal access →02
Custom forecast monitors
Private monitors for the questions your team is tracking. You get Q's current probability, what changed, and a briefing on schedule.
Request a custom monitor →03
Forecast data and API
Self-serve API access to Q's forecasts, with probabilities, evidence summaries, and update history.
Get the data →