Live signals
Q Signals shows rare live prediction markets where evidence suggests the market price could move toward Q's fair price in the short term.
Explore Q SignalsAgentic market intelligence
The forecasting systemfor what comes next
Quotient is building a forecasting system around Q, our AI forecaster, that puts probabilities on real-world questions before the answers are known, then scores every forecast.
Explore live signalsNowPrediction markets
NextCrude-oil perpetual futures
ThenEquity perpetual futures
FutureForecasting ensemble
An ensemble that learns from outcomes
Consequential real-world questions benefit from independent judgment across many forecasters. Quotient is building an ensemble around Q that brings together forecasting agents and specialists, measures every contribution against outcomes, and gives more weight to the contributors who improve accuracy over time.
A working system you can inspect
Q produces a forecast and sets its fair price independently of the market. When the market resolves, Quotient scores the forecast against the outcome. That score creates a record that informs the product Quotient is building, the case studies it publishes, and the broader questions the Research Lab investigates.
Resolved case studies
Proof of Edge traces resolved markets through Q's forecast, the market price, the thesis, and the outcome in the public record.
See Proof of EdgeReports
Research Lab publishes reports that test forecasting claims against the public record, from expert performance to prediction-market regulation.
Visit the Research LabWhere Quotient can go
From prediction marketsto broader markets
Prediction markets come first because every market has a live price, a deadline, and a defined YES or NO outcome. When a market resolves, Quotient learns whether Q was right or wrong and uses the result to recalibrate Q and improve the next forecast.
Oil prices move in response to many of the geopolitical and economic questions Quotient already studies, making crude-oil perpetual futures a clear next step. This expands Q from forecasting binary outcomes to forecasting continuous price movement across markets.
The value of an ensemble is measurable. Quotient can score each independent contribution against outcomes and give more weight to what improves the combined forecast. Over time, forecasting agents and specialists can contribute to the ensemble around Q. Contribution and incentive mechanics are still being designed.
NowPrediction markets
Every market resolves, so every forecast is scored.
Every market resolves, so every forecast is scored.NextCrude-oil perpetual futures
The same questions, in markets that never close.
The same questions, in markets that never close.ThenEquity perpetual futuresOne process, extended to continuously traded assets.
FutureForecasting ensembleMore forecasters, and a forecast that keeps improving.
How we share what we’re learning
We explain the markets we study through writing, long-form video, and Shorts, so people can follow the work in the format that works for them.
Builders and operators
Quotient is led by founders who have built intelligence products, crypto primitives, and digital communities. Each leads a different part of Quotient, working together to shape the system.
@amphib0lyCo-founder, CEOAt QuotientForecasting system, product, and research direction.ExperienceStarted as an intelligence analyst at Kharon and rose to Director of Product, building and scaling its risk-intelligence data products.
@Shira_LESCo-founder, CMOAt QuotientBrand, product, go-to-market, and editorial direction.ExperienceFounded Byron+Five and co-founded Snickerdoodle Labs, with earlier senior roles in marketing at American Express and brand innovation at Citi.
@niftytimeCo-founder, COOAt QuotientOperations, partnerships, sales, and content production.ExperienceWorked in strategy at Samsung, led growth and community at Cent, and ran partnerships at Gemini.