Put a number on emerging risk
Q, Quotient’s forecasting system, produces calibrated, evidence-backed forecasts across geopolitics, elections, economics, and law.
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026?
71%
33%
Q considered the meeting likely. The market considered it unlikely. It happened.
Quotient forecasts lead Polymarket and Kalshi
Q was more accurate than Polymarket and Kalshi on — of non-sports events forecasted over the last 60 days.
The record is not available right now.
Q more accurate, —
Market more accurate, —
By topic, last 60 days
How Q works
Questions and evidence go in; probabilities, indices and updates come out, scored once events resolve.
What goes in
A question
A prediction-market question, or one you set.
Evidence
Sources, actors, assets and related markets.
Market prices
What Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing now.
What Q does
- 1Classify the question
- 2Map the landscape
- 3Research the evidence
- 4Build scenarios
- 5Produce the forecast
What comes out
Event probabilities
Scenario-driven, calibrated forecasts on discrete events.
Risk indices
Daily readings that track a risk over time, built from Q’s forecasts and market prices.
Dynamic updates
Forecasts are re-run daily and on request, and every change is dated.
Custom forecasts
Ask Q your own questions, with resolution rules you define.
Sample forecasts
| Question | Topic | Forecast date | Q | Market | Outcome | More accurate | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Geopolitics | April 2, 2026 | 12% | 49% | No | QQ was more accurate | |
| Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? | Elections | September 29, 2026 | 63% | 38% | Yes | QQ was more accurate | |
| Will the Bank of Korea hold at the October 2026 meeting? | Economics | August 29, 2026 | 83% | 56% | Yes | QQ was more accurate | |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Tech | August 5, 2026 | 24% | 43% | No | QQ was more accurate | |
| Will Ariana Grande win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | Culture | September 21, 2026 | 20% | 36% | No | QQ was more accurate | |
| Will Wells Fargo (WFC) beat quarterly earnings? | Equities | September 30, 2026 | 76% | 53% | No | MarketThe market was more accurate |
Risk indices
Thematic risk outlooks, backed by Quotient forecasting and curated data sources.
Quotient Geopolitical Stability Index
Where conflict, diplomacy and policy markets are heading, from Q’s forecasts and market prices.
—/100
The index is not available right now.
Who Q is for
Risk teams
Get ahead of emerging risks to cyber, bio, and global stability with calibrated forecasts.
Request a custom forecast›AI labs
Datasets of historical forecasts with timestamped, contamination-free evidence and reasoning.
Ask about datasets›Media
Keep your audience engaged with dynamic forecasts about headline risks.
Request forecasts for your coverage›Bring Q into your business
Tell us the risk you need to understand and the decision it would support, and the team will respond.