WE FIND THE SIGNAL.
YOU DECIDE
HOW BIG TO GO.
Quotient turns global signals into high conviction forecasts, surfacing mispriced markets before the crowd catches up.
LaunchQ'S PERFORMANCE, VERIFIED.
Benchmarked against frontier models and tested against real market outcomes, Q performs at a level worth paying attention to.
Q vs. frontier AI models
How often each model's forecast matched the eventual market outcome.
Based on 120+ resolved forecasts. Frontier model data via PredictionArena. As of March 23, 2026.
Q vs. top forecasting benchmarks
Lower is better. Brier score measures forecast accuracy and Q scores alongside elite human superforecasters and ahead of leading AI model benchmarks.
Where Q called it right
Recent markets where Q diverged from consensus — and the outcome proved Q right.
| Market | Q Called | Market Odds | What Happened | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US or Israel strike Iran by Mar 31? | Yes | 63% | Yes ✓ | +60.0% |
| Houthi strike on Israel by Mar 15? | No | 36% | No ✓ | +55.0% |
Where Q missed and what we learned
Q is always learning. When a forecast misses, we trace the reasoning, find the breakdown, and come back sharper.
| Market | Q Called | Market Odds | What Happened | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. strike on Iran by [date]? | No | 40% | Yes | Escalation risk |
| Israeli strike triggers U.S. action? | Low | [TBD]% | Yes | Linked markets |
What we learned from it
Markets don't move in isolation. An Israeli strike on Iran raises the odds of a U.S. strike too. Q was missing that dependency.
We updated the pipeline to track correlated outcomes across linked markets. Forecasts on escalation events are now better calibrated, and Q's spreads reflect it.
SEE INSIDE A Q FORECAST
Each forecast includes a directional call, the key factors driving the view, and the full analysis reasoning behind.
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Military posture mirrors June 2025 pre-strike configuration
Nuclear program degraded, no enrichment for 7 to 8 months
Trump one-month deadline plus Israeli officials warning of war
| critical | 30% | Military posture mirrors June 2025 pre-strike configuration |
| critical | 20% | Nuclear program degraded, no enrichment for 7 to 8 months |
| significant | 15% | Trump one-month deadline plus Israeli officials warning of war |
The current military posture closely mirrors the configuration observed before the June 2025 strikes. Combined with Iran's degraded nuclear capabilities and explicit deadline language from the administration, Q assesses near-term strike probability higher than the market is pricing...
The call
What Q predicts, with a confidence level
Key factors
Ranked and weighted evidence driving Q's view
Full analysis
Reasoning, assumptions, and scenario analysis
Built to find what others miss.
Three inputs work together so Q sees further, reasons better, and gets sharper over time.
1,600+ global sources
News, data, and event signals tracked across markets and geographies.
AI superforecasting
A team of agents weighs evidence, identifies key factors, and turns market uncertainty into a reasoned view.
900+ human contributors
Contributors review forecasts, surface relevant context, and help sharpen Q's reasoning.
PUT Q TO WORK.
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