Methodology
How Q forecasts, selects Signals, and scores every resolved outcome.
Q turns any question into a calibrated probability.
- 01Classify the questionResolution rule, horizon, and question type.
- 02Map the landscapeActors, assets, linked markets, and related questions.
- 03Research the evidenceCheck the sources behind each claim.
- 04Build scenariosBase rates, pathways, dependencies, and disconfirming evidence.
- 05Produce the forecastA calibrated probability with uncertainty and cited analysis.
Signal selection
Q generates many forecasts. The best ones become Signals. Q curates markets where it sees a large spread and short-term catalysts that it believes will move the market in its direction.
- 500forecasts / day
- 100spread > 10pp
- 50meaningful liquidity
- 10resolve within a week
Q gets better over time.
Score each outcome
Compare Q and the forecast-time market price with the resolved result.
Diagnose the error
Trace the evidence, expert weights, and missing inputs behind the miss.
Feed the next model
Turn repeatable findings into fine-tuning and data changes.
Resolved forecast accuracy
Last 60 days · 1,027 resolved forecasts across 199 markets
Methodology
A forecast is eligible only when its market is explicitly marked closed or resolved. It is scored as NO only when terminal YES odds are strictly below 1%, and YES only when strictly above 99%; open markets and values exactly at 1% or 99% are excluded.
The Brier score is first averaged across the cohort, then converted to the Brier Index: (1 − √Brier score) × 100. The Index is a number from 0 to 100, not a percentage. Higher is better: an Index of 50 equals always forecasting a coin flip, and 100 is perfect foresight. The Index measures distance from the resolved outcomes, not share correct.
The Polymarket benchmark is the YES probability stored with each forecast at creation time, not the market's current price.
Read with care. Recent cohorts are incomplete because the 60-day view includes only forecasts whose markets have resolved. Forecasts on the same market are correlated, so the market count is shown with the forecast count.
Geopolitics + global elections · all forecast observations · updated Aug 17, 2026