← Thesis
Signal performance
Every published Signal on a resolved market, measured with the Hold 7 days paper strategy.
Average paper return+34.5%Across 85 measurable resolved positions
Win rate+67.1%Share of measurable resolved positions above entry
Resolved positions88+$2,929 total paper P/L
Resolved positions
Updated Aug 11, 2026| Published | Signal | Side | Entry | Exit | Paper return | Paper exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | YES | 74¢ | — | — | — |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | YES | 72¢ | — | — | — |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | YES | 70¢ | — | — | — |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | YES | 74¢ | 100¢ | +35.1% | Resolution · Aug 5, 2026 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | NO | 32¢ | 1¢ | −97.3% | Day 7 · Aug 8, 2026 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | YES | 66¢ | 100¢ | +51.4% | Resolution · Aug 6, 2026 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | NO | 14¢ | 100¢ | +613.9% | Resolution · Aug 3, 2026 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | YES | 83¢ | 0¢ | −99.9% | Resolution · Jul 31, 2026 |
| Jul 30, 2026 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | NO | 19¢ | 100¢ | +426.1% | Resolution · Aug 3, 2026 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | NO | 58¢ | 100¢ | +72.3% | Resolution · Aug 3, 2026 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | YES | 22¢ | 85¢ | +284.1% | Day 7 · Aug 5, 2026 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | YES | 79¢ | 100¢ | +26.5% | Resolution · Aug 5, 2026 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | NO | 58¢ | 100¢ | +72.3% | Resolution · Aug 3, 2026 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | YES | 22¢ | 80¢ | +261.4% | Day 7 · Aug 5, 2026 |
| Jul 28, 2026 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | NO | 44¢ | 22¢ | −48.9% | Day 7 · Aug 4, 2026 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | YES | 38¢ | 1¢ | −96.2% | Day 7 · Jul 31, 2026 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26? | YES | 42¢ | 5¢ | −89.3% | Day 7 · Jul 31, 2026 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | YES | 70¢ | 100¢ | +42.8% | Resolution · Jul 29, 2026 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | YES | 55¢ | 99¢ | +79.9% | Day 7 · Jul 31, 2026 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? | YES | 60¢ | 100¢ | +66.6% | Resolution · Jul 29, 2026 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | YES | 56¢ | 95¢ | +68.8% | Day 7 · Jul 30, 2026 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | YES | 62¢ | 97¢ | +55.9% | Day 7 · Jul 30, 2026 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? | NO | 38¢ | 0¢ | −99.9% | Resolution · Jul 24, 2026 |
| Jul 22, 2026 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? | NO | 38¢ | 0¢ | −99.9% | Resolution · Jul 29, 2026 |
| Jul 21, 2026 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | NO | 68¢ | 0¢ | −99.9% | Resolution · Jul 28, 2026 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | NO | 86¢ | 50¢ | −42.4% | Day 7 · Jul 27, 2026 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | NO | 76¢ | 94¢ | +23.0% | Day 7 · Jul 27, 2026 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | NO | 54¢ | 63¢ | +16.7% | Day 7 · Jul 27, 2026 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | NO | 80¢ | 45¢ | −43.1% | Day 7 · Jul 27, 2026 |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | NO | 84¢ | 96¢ | +13.7% | Day 7 · Jul 27, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | YES | 29¢ | 21¢ | −26.6% | Day 7 · Jul 26, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | YES | 62¢ | 88¢ | +41.1% | Day 7 · Jul 26, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Iran full airspace closure by July 24? | NO | 76¢ | 100¢ | +31.5% | Resolution · Jul 25, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026? | NO | 57¢ | 0¢ | −99.9% | Resolution · Jul 22, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25? | YES | 74¢ | 100¢ | +34.9% | Resolution · Jul 26, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | NO | 74¢ | 93¢ | +25.0% | Day 7 · Jul 26, 2026 |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | NO | 63¢ | 94¢ | +48.4% | Day 7 · Jul 26, 2026 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | NO | 83¢ | 72¢ | −13.9% | Day 7 · Jul 25, 2026 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | NO | 70¢ | 83¢ | +17.9% | Day 7 · Jul 25, 2026 |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | NO | 84¢ | 89¢ | +5.4% | Day 7 · Jul 25, 2026 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026? | NO | 18¢ | 16¢ | −12.8% | Day 7 · Jul 24, 2026 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026? | NO | 48¢ | 100¢ | +108.2% | Resolution · Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | NO | 56¢ | 81¢ | +44.6% | Day 7 · Jul 24, 2026 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | YES | 49¢ | 19¢ | −60.9% | Day 7 · Jul 24, 2026 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | NO | 86¢ | 98¢ | +13.7% | Day 7 · Jul 24, 2026 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | YES | 60¢ | 79¢ | +30.8% | Day 7 · Jul 24, 2026 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? | NO | 56¢ | 0¢ | −99.9% | Resolution · Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | NO | 78¢ | 86¢ | +9.6% | Day 7 · Jul 24, 2026 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026? | NO | 40¢ | 100¢ | +149.9% | Resolution · Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026? | YES | 42¢ | 1¢ | −98.8% | Resolution · Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | NO | 76¢ | 95¢ | +24.3% | Day 7 · Jul 23, 2026 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | YES | 34¢ | 10¢ | −72.1% | Day 7 · Jul 22, 2026 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | NO | 38¢ | 71¢ | +85.5% | Day 7 · Jul 22, 2026 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? | YES | 36¢ | 33¢ | −8.3% | Day 7 · Jul 22, 2026 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | YES | 23¢ | 11¢ | −54.3% | Day 7 · Jul 22, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16? | YES | 27¢ | 100¢ | +270.2% | Resolution · Jul 17, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by August 31, 2026? | YES | 51¢ | 60¢ | +17.6% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | YES | 36¢ | 12¢ | −65.7% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31? | YES | 20¢ | 12¢ | −39.0% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24? | NO | 78¢ | 97¢ | +24.7% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by July 31, 2026? | YES | 42¢ | 50¢ | +19.0% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting? | YES | 60¢ | 36¢ | −40.8% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | NO | 74¢ | 92¢ | +23.6% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | NO | 84¢ | 92¢ | +9.5% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | NO | 78¢ | 88¢ | +12.2% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | NO | 70¢ | 76¢ | +7.9% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? | NO | 62¢ | 36¢ | −41.9% | Day 7 · Jul 21, 2026 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Iran successfully targets shipping on July 13? | NO | 64¢ | 100¢ | +55.7% | Resolution · Jul 17, 2026 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | YES | 46¢ | 90¢ | +95.0% | Day 7 · Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | NO | 64¢ | 92¢ | +43.0% | Day 7 · Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | NO | 62¢ | 82¢ | +32.3% | Day 7 · Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 13, 2026 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | NO | 62¢ | 87¢ | +39.5% | Day 7 · Jul 20, 2026 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31, 2026? | YES | 28¢ | 16¢ | −42.9% | Day 7 · Jul 19, 2026 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | NO | 36¢ | 78¢ | +115.3% | Day 7 · Jul 19, 2026 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31? | YES | 40¢ | 89¢ | +121.6% | Day 7 · Jul 19, 2026 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? | NO | 68¢ | 93¢ | +36.0% | Day 7 · Jul 19, 2026 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | NO | 70¢ | 90¢ | +27.9% | Day 7 · Jul 19, 2026 |
| Jul 12, 2026 | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12? | NO | 76¢ | 0¢ | −99.9% | Resolution · Jul 12, 2026 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | NO | 72¢ | 83¢ | +15.3% | Day 7 · Jul 15, 2026 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | NO | 62¢ | 38¢ | −38.7% | Day 7 · Jul 15, 2026 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | NO | 29¢ | 80¢ | +174.1% | Day 7 · Jul 14, 2026 |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | YES | 50¢ | 35¢ | −30.0% | Day 7 · Jul 13, 2026 |
| Jul 2, 2026 | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | NO | 18¢ | 100¢ | +455.3% | Resolution · Jul 9, 2026 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | NO | 69¢ | 96¢ | +38.4% | Day 7 · Jul 8, 2026 |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | NO | 69¢ | 96¢ | +38.4% | Day 7 · Jul 8, 2026 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | NO | 53¢ | 91¢ | +71.7% | Day 7 · Jul 7, 2026 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | NO | 59¢ | 88¢ | +48.3% | Day 7 · Jul 6, 2026 |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? | NO | 56¢ | 67¢ | +18.7% | Day 7 · Jul 6, 2026 |
Method
Each published Signal receives an equal $100 paper stake at its published side price. The paper position closes after seven days, or when the market resolves sooner. Returns are gross and exclude fees, bid-ask spread, slippage, taxes, position limits, venue access, and fill availability.
Simulated paper returns do not represent actual trading and do not account for fees, liquidity, slippage, or actual fills; your results may differ.