Turns market noise into
actionable trading strategies.
We combine broad source coverage, structured AI reasoning, and human contributor signal to surface where consensus breaks down.
Built to find what others miss.
Q groups related markets into narratives organized around a shared thesis. You get context, not just a probability.
1,000+ global sources
News, data, and event signals tracked across markets and geographies.
AI superforecasting
A team of agents weighs evidence, identifies key factors, and translates uncertainty into a reasoned view.
900+ human contributors
Contributors review forecasts, surface context, and help sharpen Q's reasoning.
Q's performance, verified.
Benchmarked against frontier models and tested against real market outcomes. Q performs at a level worth paying attention to.
Q vs. frontier AI models
How often each model's forecast matched the eventual market outcome.
Based on 120+ resolved forecasts. Frontier model data via PredictionArena. As of March 23, 2026.
Q vs. top forecasting benchmarks
Lower is better. Brier score measures forecast accuracy and Q scores alongside elite human superforecasters and ahead of leading AI model benchmarks.
Where Quotient plugs in.
Where Q called it and where it learned.
Every resolved market is reviewed. Wins and misses are published so you can evaluate conviction.
Where Q called it right
Recent markets where Q diverged from consensus, and the outcome proved Q right.
| Market | Q Called | Market Odds | What Happened | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US or Israel strike Iran by Mar 31? | Yes | 63% | Yes ✓ | +60.0% |
| Houthi strike on Israel by Mar 15? | No | 36% | No ✓ | +55.0% |
Where Q missed and what we learned
Q is always learning. When a forecast misses, we trace the reasoning, find the breakdown, and come back sharper.
| Market | Q Called | Market Odds | What Happened | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. strike on Iran by [date]? | No | 40% | Yes | Escalation risk |
| Israeli strike triggers U.S. action? | Low | [TBD]% | Yes | Linked markets |
What we learned from it
Markets don't move in isolation. An Israeli strike on Iran raises the odds of a U.S. strike too. Q was missing that dependency.
We updated the pipeline to track correlated outcomes across linked markets. Forecasts on escalation events are now better calibrated, and Q's spreads reflect it.
How Quotient Gets Better
Quotient improves through a loop of forecasting, review, and feedback. Each cycle tightens the signal.
The People Sharpening Q
Contributors review forecasts, surface context, and compete for monthly rewards. Here's who's leading.
Scores reflect contributor accuracy across resolved forecasts. $250 in monthly rewards for the top 25. Leaderboard updates live via the Signal app.