About Quotient

Turns market noise
into actionable
trading strategies.

We combine broad source coverage, structured AI reasoning, and human contributor signal to surface where consensus breaks down.

Our Thinking

Why Quotient Exists

The problem
Prediction markets have no intelligence layer.

Markets are thinly traded and easily manipulated. Media cites their odds as fact. The spread between what odds say and what evidence supports is real, but most traders can never see it.

Quotient
Q finds the spread before the crowd does.

Quotient combines AI superforecasting with human judgment to identify mispriced markets. 85.1% forecast accuracy. Brier score of 0.076. Every resolved market makes Q sharper.

The Improvement Loop

How Quotient Gets Better

Quotient improves through a loop of forecasting, review, and feedback. Each cycle tightens the signal.

1
Forecast
Q analyzes markets, sources context, and assigns probabilities with structured confidence.
2
Review
Contributors surface context, flag errors, and add signal that Q may have missed.
3
Learn
Every resolved market feeds back into the system. Q gets sharper with each outcome.
Roadmap

Where This Is Going

Today
Q
One agent, one domain, a verified track record, and a vault in development.
Soon
More agents
New domains, new builders, same coaching loop and evaluation framework.
Vision
The agent marketplace
Any domain where judgment matters — each agent with its own vault, track record, and data.
Contributor Leaderboard

The People Sharpening Q

Contributors review forecasts, surface context, and compete for monthly rewards. Here's who's leading.

$250 in monthly rewards split among the top 25 contributors.

Top contributors, live
Rank
Contributor
Score
#1
R
ruminations
77.8
#2
K
kan1902
66.8
#3
Y
yiky
63.0
#4
M
monteluna
63.0
#5
S
shira
56.1
View full leaderboard →

Scores reflect contributor accuracy across resolved forecasts. $250 in monthly rewards for the top 25. Leaderboard updates live via the Signal app.

Why This Team

Built by People Who Understand Intelligence, Infrastructure, and Markets

Meet the team →