Hawk & Dove index
The Hawk & Dove index (the Quotient Stability Index) is a 0–100 score built from Quotient's forecasts across conflict and diplomacy markets. It reports whether those markets are moving toward escalation or de-escalation, from two views: Quotient's forecasts and the market's odds.
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What the score means
- Higher is calmer (dove, de-escalation). Lower is more tense (hawk, escalation).
- It is two lines: Quotient's view (
qIndex, from forecast probabilities) and the market's view (mIndex, from market odds at the time of each forecast). Each is a trailing 7-day average. - The headline number is the geometric mean of the two lines.
- The spread between them is the disagreement. Positive means Quotient prices more de-escalation than the market; negative means more escalation.
How it is built
- Each conflict or diplomacy question is signed by its text: +1 if YES means escalation, −1 if YES means de-escalation. Ambiguous questions are dropped.
- Signed probabilities are averaged per day, weighted by each market's 24-hour trading volume. Weights are median-filled and capped at the 95th percentile, so one large market cannot own the index.
- Only live, still-contested markets count. Settled markets and markets pinned at the rails (below 1¢ or above 99¢) are excluded.
- Gaps forward-fill for up to 7 days per market, and the series is smoothed with a trailing 7-day average.
How it updates
- The series is daily points over a 30-day window.
- The score recomputes from the live forecast graph, cached for 5 minutes.
- Each update ships 24-hour and 7-day deltas plus a 7-day sparkline.
Reading it
- A falling score means the posture is shifting toward escalation. A rising score means de-escalation.
- When Quotient's line and the market's line disagree, the market has generally converged toward Quotient's over about 7 days.
- Daily changes are mostly noise. The index is most useful at regime turns and sharp repricings.
- For oil, large index moves in either direction have preceded large moves in crude.
- Marked points on the chart are inflections where a Quotient forecast at least 15 points from the market preceded the turn and the market later moved that way.
Payload fields
The internal endpoint (/api/signals/hawk-dove) returns one JSON object.
| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
series | Daily points: date, qIndex (Quotient's line), mIndex (the market's line), both 0–100 and smoothed |
signals | Confirmed inflection events: date, index value, market question, direction (escalation or de-escalation), Quotient's and the market's prices then (qThen, pmThen) and the market's price now (pmNow), forecast summary and crux |
index | The headline composite (geometric mean of the two lines): value, 24h delta and %, 7d %, 7-day spark |
metrics | Per-line stats for quotient, polymarket, and spread: value, 24h and 7d deltas (absolute and %), spark |
sentence | A one-line assessment of the current spread |
There is no public API endpoint for the index yet. It appears in the signals app: the index ticker, the index page, and the WTI-OIL signal, which opens a Long or Short only when the index leaves its usual range.