GET
/api/public/performance
Retrospective Quotient forecast performance context
Free, refreshable context derived from q-trade-analysis/forecast_performance.py. Every summary carries a basis: resolved counts markets explicitly flagged closed/resolved plus markets whose end date has passed (report's UTC day or earlier) at terminal odds; projected additionally counts every terminal-odds market (YES odds strictly below 1% or above 99%) regardless of end date, scored as the price points — a projected view. reporting leads with the last-60-day geopolitics/global-elections resolved cohort because those are Quotient's most consistently forecasted categories (primaryProjected is its projected counterpart), then includes the unfiltered full book and the same two cohorts all time; every cohort carries two per-market sampling views on both bases — mean_per_market (the primary; each market votes once) and its one_random_per_market robustness check — and every summary pairs its Brier comparison with winning-side directional accuracy (qAccuracy, marketAccuracy). accuracy remains the complete flat array. It also reports calibration bins and hypothetical seven-day/resolution returns per basis.
Auth none (free)
Parameters
None.
Responses
200: Thirty-minute-cached forecast performance snapshot
| Field | Type | Description | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| version required | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| calculationVersion required | string | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| generatedAt required | string | Format: date-time | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| refreshTtlHours required | number | Minimum: 0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| methodology required | object | Machine-readable definitions for the resolved and projected bases, outcome mapping, Brier comparison, benchmark, hypothetical returns, scopes, periods, and sampling methods. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| population required | object[] | population fields
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| reporting required | object | Canonical reporting hierarchy. Read primary for the headline resolved-basis score and primaryProjected for its projected counterpart, then periods in returned order for the requested with/without-category-filter comparison and sampling breakdowns.reporting fields
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| accuracy required | PerformanceScoreSummary[] | Complete flat Brier comparisons for every basis × scope × period × sampling method. Prefer reporting for presentation order and context.accuracy fields
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| calibration required | object[] | Ten-point probability-bin calibration context for Quotient and the market-at-forecast benchmark, per basis. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| hypotheticalReturns required | object[] | Uncosted hypothetical returns for buying the side Quotient considered underpriced at 5, 10, and 15 percentage-point disagreement thresholds, per basis; projected rows presume the outcome the market price points to.hypotheticalReturns fields
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| caveats required | string[] |
503: Performance snapshot temporarily unavailable
| Field | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|
| error required | string | Error code |
| message required | string | Human-readable message |
| retry_after | integer | Seconds to wait (only on 429) |
| retryAfter | integer | Seconds to wait for owner-scoped forecast-request quota errors. |
| limit_scope | string | Quota scope that rejected the request, such as standard or x_research. |
| quotaScope | string | Stable forecast-request quota scope, such as venue_market_daily. |
| limit | integer | Configured bound for the forecast-request quota that was exceeded. |
Set QUOTIENT_API_KEY in your shell and replace example identifiers with returned IDs before running a request.
curl
curl --request GET \
'https://quotient-api-gateway.onrender.com/api/public/performance'200 · application/json
{
"version": 4,
"calculationVersion": "example",
"generatedAt": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z",
"refreshTtlHours": 0,
"methodology": {},
"population": [
{
"scope": "all_markets",
"forecasts": 0,
"markets": 0,
"resolvedForecasts": 0,
"resolvedMarkets": 0,
"firstForecastAt": null,
"lastForecastAt": null
}
],
"reporting": {
"context": "example",
"primary": {
"scope": "all_markets",
"period": "all_time",
"sample": "mean_per_market",
"basis": "resolved",
"qBrier": null,
"marketBrier": null,
"qAdvantage": null,
"actualYesRate": null,
"qAccuracy": null,
"marketAccuracy": null,
"forecasts": 0,
"markets": 0
},
"primaryProjected": {
"scope": "all_markets",
"period": "all_time",
"sample": "mean_per_market",
"basis": "resolved",
"qBrier": null,
"marketBrier": null,
"qAdvantage": null,
"actualYesRate": null,
"qAccuracy": null,
"marketAccuracy": null,
"forecasts": 0,
"markets": 0
},
"periods": [
{
"period": "last_60_days",
"label": "example",
"context": "example",
"cohorts": [
{
"scope": "geopolitics_global_elections",
"label": "example",
"context": "example",
"samples": [
null
],
"projected": [
null
]
}
]
}
]
},
"accuracy": [
{
"scope": "all_markets",
"period": "all_time",
"sample": "mean_per_market",
"basis": "resolved",
"qBrier": null,
"marketBrier": null,
"qAdvantage": null,
"actualYesRate": null,
"qAccuracy": null,
"marketAccuracy": null,
"forecasts": 0,
"markets": 0
}
],
"calibration": [
{}
],
"hypotheticalReturns": [
{
"scope": "example",
"period": "example",
"basis": "resolved",
"minimumSpreadPp": 0,
"horizon": "seven_days",
"side": "all",
"meanReturnPct": null,
"medianReturnPct": null,
"positiveShare": null,
"forecasts": 0,
"markets": 0
}
],
"caveats": [
"example"
]
}